The Global Battle for Critical Minerals with Special Guest, Sir Michael Fallon
- Liz Priestman
- Feb 12
- 4 min read
Updated: Apr 18
China’s Control, Western Security, and the Fight for Resource Independence
In Part One of The Ripple Effect, we explored Ukraine, NATO, and Europe’s shifting security landscape. Now, in Part Two, we turn to a different kind of battlefield—one that doesn’t involve tanks and troops but is just as strategic: the fight for critical minerals.
For this discussion, I once again had the pleasure of sitting back (and letting the real experts do the heavy lifting) as Sir Michael Fallon, former UK Defence Secretary, and my ever-insightful co-host Nicholaus Rohleder unpacked what’s at stake in the global scramble for essential minerals. Spoiler: it’s a lot.
China’s Grip: The West’s Growing Dependency Problem
Let’s start with the obvious. The West’s ability to function—militarily, economically, and technologically—depends on critical minerals like lithium, rare earths, and graphite. And who controls most of the refining and supply chains? China.
A recent Financial Times report highlighted how Beijing-backed lending is further tightening China’s hold on these resources, making it increasingly difficult for Western nations to catch up. Sir Michael was refreshingly direct about what this means:
“If China continues to restrict supply, the West’s defense systems will become increasingly vulnerable.”
Translation? If we don’t act fast, we’ll be left hoping that our future AI-driven fighter jets can run on good intentions and a strong Wi-Fi signal.
Is This a 2030 Problem? Or a Right-Now Problem?
One of the biggest debates in the room was just how urgent this issue really is.
Some say it’s a 2030 problem—meaning we have five years to get serious.
Others suggest this is a 2040 concern, meaning we have more time.
Sir Michael? He didn’t mince words: if this is a 2030 problem, we should have started yesterday.
Why? Because mining, refining, and building supply chains takes time—and that’s before factoring in the usual delays (politics, regulations, and the occasional misplaced environmental impact study).
No Market, No Investment: The West’s Critical Minerals Dilemma
One of the biggest structural problems in securing critical minerals is that they don’t trade like oil or gold.
No central marketplace means no price transparency.
No price transparency means hesitant investors.
Hesitant investors means we’re still dependent on China.
Sir Michael pointed out that government intervention is the only way to break this cycle. He referenced the UK’s success in jumpstarting renewables through government-backed offtake agreements—a strategy that could help stabilize the market for critical minerals.
“We need to send a clear signal to investors that demand will be there in 2030, 2040, and beyond.”
In other words, if we want private investment to flow into Western mining and refining projects, governments need to act like responsible party hosts and guarantee that someone will show up.
China’s Ace Card: Weaponizing Supply Chains
Even if Western nations make progress, China still has the ability to manipulate global prices—which could deter investment before it even begins. And if you think Beijing wouldn’t deliberately flood the market or restrict supply for strategic reasons, you probably also think that pandas just happen to be adorable diplomatic tools.
Nicholaus raised a critical question:
“If China starts manipulating prices, what’s the backstop? How does the West prevent a worst-case scenario?”
Sir Michael’s answer? Government-backed offtake agreements. If done correctly, this approach could stabilize prices, protect investors, and ensure supply chains remain functional even if China plays dirty.
Allies & Influence: Why the West Needs to Work Together
Beyond China’s direct control, there’s another challenge: where critical minerals come from.
Many are found in unstable or geopolitically complex regions.
Even in friendly countries, processing and refining capacity is lacking.
Sir Michael stressed that Western democracies need to collaborate more effectively, whether through AUKUS, the Quad, or other strategic alliances. And we shouldn’t ignore the Global South, where China has been making aggressive investments in African and Latin American mining operations.
“We need to rethink how we engage with these regions—not just with short-term aid, but by helping build sustainable mining and refining industries that benefit both sides.”
The goal? Ensure that Western nations have direct access to critical materials without being held hostage by Beijing.
The Real Problem: Money, or Lack Thereof
The biggest hurdle remains capital formation.
Private investment in new mining projects is weak—particularly in high-risk regions.
China, by contrast, has used state-backed lending to secure resources globally.
Sir Michael suggested that development banks could help bridge the gap, providing the financial backstop needed to de-risk projects and encourage private capital to step in.
“We have the expertise, the financial institutions, and the demand. What’s missing is the coordinated strategy to bring it all together.”
Final Thoughts: A Geopolitical Reset is Needed
If Western nations want to break China’s dominance, they need to take decisive, coordinated action.
Governments must stabilize markets through offtake agreements.
Allied nations must work together to secure supply chains.
Investment barriers must be lowered to unlock capital for mining and refining.
The good news? The West has been here before.
Sir Michael pointed out that during World War I, British-backed investments helped secure essential minerals for the war effort. With the right strategy, history could repeat itself—in a way that benefits us this time.
What’s Next?
The fight for critical minerals is just getting started.
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