From Mine to Market: Mapping the Critical Minerals Investment Landscape

Metals power everything from clean energy, AI, national defense and electric vehicles.

The 20th century was defined by oil. The 21st? It's powered by metals.

Copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earths are no longer just commodities they are the strategic inputs behind everything from clean energy to artificial intelligence to national defense. They’re enablers of industrial revolutions, but also chokepoints geopolitically, economically, and technologically. And while their importance is clear, the investment case often isn’t.

To bring clarity to the conversation, I recently moderated a webinar hosted in partnership with the London Stock Exchange. My guests were two of the most informed and forward-thinking voices in the field:

• Nicholaus Rohleder is the Co-Founder of Climate Commodities (CC), a global commodity merchant and development accelerator focused on incubating, scaling, and funding businesses and assets essential for clean energy transition, artificial intelligence infrastructure, national defense, and the broader commodity, power electronics, and energy sectors. He is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a Fellow at the U.S. National Security Institute. Previously, he served as Chief Investment Officer at New American Energy, Chief Operating Officer at Merit Holdings Group, and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia University.

  
  

• Adam Johnson is a seasoned leader in the rare earth and critical minerals industry, with over 20 years of experience in private equity, strategic planning, and frontier technologies. As an Operating Partner at Ara Partners, he developed the firm’s rare earth supply chain strategy, leading to the acquisition of Vacuumschmelze and securing major Department of Defense and Energy grants. Previously, he was Senior VP of Corporate Development & Strategy at MP Materials (NYSE: MP), where he advanced business development, ESG initiatives, and vertical integration efforts. Adam has served as Chief Commercial Officer for Stardust Power (Nasdaq: SDST) and is a Senior Adviser to Aclara Resources (TSX: ARA), guiding its strategy for sustainable rare earth extraction. 

What followed was a deep but accessible exploration of what’s really happening across the critical minerals landscape. Below is a distillation of the conversation, organized by metal. Whether you’re an institutional allocator, a strategic investor, or simply trying to understand what lies beneath the next industrial wave, there’s plenty here to unpack.

Copper: From Commodity to Cornerstone

Copper has long been taken for granted. It’s familiar. Ubiquitous. Historically abundant. But that perception is quickly becoming outdated.

As Adam noted, copper is quite literally “the infrastructure mineral.” It’s in everything from home wiring and plumbing to EV motors, semiconductors, and the transmission lines connecting renewable power to urban grids. And increasingly, it’s central to AI data centres and advanced defense systems.

Nicholaus added that the U.S. only formally designated copper a critical mineral in 2023, largely due to a sharp increase in usage intensity. For example: EVs require 80–100 kg of copper per vehicle four times that of a conventional car and utility-scale solar needs over five tonnes of copper per megawatt. AI data centres? Two to three times the copper load of traditional facilities.

The problem? Demand is accelerating, but supply is faltering. New discoveries are rare, ore grades are declining, and permitting timelines in OECD countries can stretch well over a decade. Meanwhile, China controls roughly 40% of global copper refining, surpassing the market share OPEC held during the 1970s oil crises.

Key takeaways:

• Most Underestimated Driver: Global grid upgrades and AI infrastructure buildouts, especially outside the West.

• Most Investable Segments: Brownfield mining projects, midstream processing, and copper recycling where recycled supply is expected to grow meaningfully from the current 17%.

• A Little Caution: The supply chain is more concentrated than it appears. Pricing may not yet reflect long-term geopolitical and structural risk.

Lithium: The White Gold Whiplash

Lithium was the darling of the energy transition until it wasn’t. After a meteoric rise, prices have fallen more than 80% since their 2022 peak. That kind of reversal tends to rattle even long-term investors.

But Nicholaus and Adam were aligned: this is a correction, not a collapse. The structural demand story remains intact. Lithium remains unmatched in energy density and is foundational to mobile energy storage, from EVs to drones to grid applications. As Nicholaus put it, “A century from now, energy storage will be even more important than it is today—and lithium will still be central to that story.”

Short-term price declines have little to do with long-term fundamentals. Instead, they reflect China’s dominant position in refining (75%), market noise, and cyclical capital overflows. Solid-state and sodium-ion batteries may eventually diversify the chemistry mix, but lithium’s core role isn’t going away anytime soon.

Key takeaways:

• Where’s the opportunity? Western midstream refining and conversion capacity. Australia mines it, China processes it—this is the weak link the West is now racing to address.

• DLE (Direct Lithium Extraction): Still early, still unproven at scale, but promising—especially in water-constrained jurisdictions.

• Risk Lens: Focus on cost curve positioning. We’re now at the lower rung. That’s often where long-term returns are born.

Nickel: Critical, Complex, and Caught in the Middle

Nickel is having an identity crisis. It’s critical to both legacy industries (steel) and future-facing ones (batteries), yet investor interest has waned amid price volatility and supply surges from Indonesia.

Adam described nickel as the “in-between metal” - versatile, indispensable, and often misunderstood. It’s essential for high-performance batteries, aerospace alloys, and catalysts. But supply dynamics have shifted dramatically. Indonesia now accounts for over 50% of global production, supported by heavy Chinese investment and policies designed to retain value through downstream refining.

Nicholaus emphasized that while LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries are growing, especially in China, Western markets continue to favour nickel-rich chemistries for range, performance, and defense applications. Demand isn’t disappearing it’s just being reprioritized.

Key takeaways:

• Where to Watch: Western refining and recycling. Both are underdeveloped and politically aligned with friend-shoring strategies.

• Investment Theme: Waste-to-value. By 2035, 10–15% of nickel supply may come from recycling; an area still early in its capital cycle.

• Risk Lens: ESG remains a major challenge, particularly in Indonesia, which relies on coal-fired power and has a mixed history with resource governance.

Rare Earths: High Stakes, Low Visibility

Rare earth elements (REEs) are the least understood—and perhaps most strategically sensitive—of all the minerals we discussed. Their role in permanent magnets makes them indispensable to offshore wind turbines, EV drivetrains, guided missiles, satellites, drones, and even data centre cooling systems.

Yet as Nicholaus explained, the market is structurally opaque. REEs are not traded on Western exchanges. There are no futures contracts for neodymium or praseodymium. Prices are set almost entirely within China, which controls ~90% of refining and over 60% of total production.

This lack of commercial visibility, combined with national security overtones, makes traditional capital markets uneasy. Many institutional investors simply don’t know how to model the risk.

Adam argued that the solution lies in scale. A number of Western-led mining projects are underway, but midstream and magnet-making capacity is still lacking. Government intervention in the form of stockpiles, offtake guarantees, and strategic grants may be necessary to crowd in private capital.

Key takeaways:

• Biggest Constraint: Not mining, but processing. Separation and magnet manufacturing remain bottlenecks dominated by Asia.

• Near-Term Solutions: Western industrial strategy, patient capital, and vertically integrated models.

• Long-Term View: The industry can become competitive but investors need to pick winners carefully and be prepared for a long ride.

Final Word: The Metals Beneath the Megatrends

If there’s one theme that echoed across all four minerals, it’s this: the future isn’t possible without them. Clean energy, AI, advanced defense, and even basic industrial stability all depend on securing resilient, transparent supply chains for these materials.

We’re entering an era where metals strategy is national strategy, and pricing risk is inseparable from geopolitical alignment. Investment returns will increasingly come from understanding where the real constraints lie and how to capitalize on the solutions being built.

For those still on the sidelines, here’s the truth: these aren’t fringe bets. These are the front lines of tomorrow’s economy. The question isn’t whether you’ll invest in critical minerals. It’s whether you’ll be early or late.